SINGAPOREANS accustomed to the process of social policy-setting can feel it in their bones they are being primed to wait longer before they can access their Central Provident Fund retirement account. It has just been raised to $99,600, with the inflation-adjusted ceiling set (for now) at $120,000 by 2013. The probability of delaying the withdrawal age for this minimum sum, to around 65 from the present 62, has been gaining traction since it was raised as a wind-tester by Mr Lim Boon Heng, the minister handling issues of the aged. Consider why it is looking inevitable. The factors propelling the need - rising longevity, rising living costs, especially of health care, and the low CPF savings rate of the lower-middle and low-income groups - are immutables with which adjustable policy has to be squared. Even if the Government, in a fit of generosity, raised the accrued value of the minimum sum by paying higher interest than the current 4 per cent, the increase would not be substantial. It would be nice to know if the CPF people are crunching notional numbers.

The issue remains one of how to make the savings last longer, based loosely on actuarial calculations. For the Government, this translates in practical terms into how to make the higher withdrawal age least disruptive to modest income earners, and at least cost to its political fortunes. A prime assumption to support delayed access to retirement money is that more Singaporeans will be working longer, well into their 60s, so as to boost savings. Thus is the withdrawal age being pegged to the timeline for a law change to prolong employment past the current retirement age. This is expected in four to five years, modelled on a Japanese initiative. It will in effect raise the retirement age. The imponderable is that workers past the age of 60 would be the first to be axed in downturns. In shortening business cycles, slumps will in theory be more frequent. Less-skilled older workers earning little income and needing more retirement support is a vicious circle.

To minimise impact the Government could consider an exemption for the most indigent CPF members, who would now be in their mid-50s and in modest-wage jobs. Those who are a number of years out from retirement when the new withdrawal age takes effect - say, up to seven years prior - can be spared. The low-income segment of the working population will gradually dwindle as education profiles and work skills rise. Younger workers now in their 40s and under who have ample earning power will largely be unaffected by the change.