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US optimism up: poll
Wed, May 20, 2009
AFP

WASHINGTON - FOR the first time in five months, more US workers said their employers were hiring rather than firing, pushing the mood among American consumers to a new high for the year, polls showed on Tuesday.

But the news was not all good, with consumer spending 40 per cent less than the same week a year ago, according to the polls conducted by Gallup.

Out of 1,900 people surveyed for Gallup's Net New Hiring Index, 26 per cent said their employers were hiring, a rise of four percentage points over the past two weeks, while those who said their bosses were firing fell by an equal number of points to 23 per cent.

The Gallup Consumer Mood Index, for which 3,500 Americans were asked if they thought the economy is improving or getting worse and whether it is heading in the right direction, was minus 52 last week, nearly double what it was a year ago and a new high for 2009.

And yet, average spending was sharply down on a year ago, leading Gallup analysts to question whether the tendency to spend less was the 'new normal.' The 3,500 Americans polled for Gallup's consumer spending monitor reported spending an average of 61 dollars a day - excluding home payments and bills and the cost of running a car.

That is down from 104 dollars during the same week last year.

'Last week's improvement in Gallup's Net New Hiring Index is good news for a US economy that is losing jobs at the rate of more than a half-million per month, particularly when consumer spending does not seem to be responding to a dramatic positive surge in consumer mood,' Gallup said in a brief analysis posted on its website.

'A perceived increase in job security can only help reassure consumers who are still holding back on their spending because of insecurity about keeping their jobs.' But, the report warned, if consumers continue to 'pare their spending', retailers and small businesses could be forced to shut down.

'The real question is whether the failure of consumer spending to rebound is the result of consumer job and income uncertainties and a lack of credit or, instead, because the country is reaching something of a 'new normal,'' Gallup said.

That would mean Main Street would have 'some major adjustments to endure before there is a sustained recovery.' The surveys were conducted during the week of May 11-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

 

 
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