>> ASIAONE / BUSINESS / NEWS / STORY
Analysts say markets stuck between fear and panic
Sat, Oct 11, 2008
AFP

PARIS, Oct 10, 2008 (AFP) - Emerging from the wreckage of an historically bad week of trading, dealers from Tokyo to London and New York say the financial turmoil has left markets in an irrational state of fear.

Some dealers buried their faces in their hands, unable to watch as index indicators steadily fell Friday morning in scenes that were replayed around the world as each market opened.

Tokyo's Nikkei index crashed 24.33 percent over the week for its worst five days of trading in its 50 years of existence. The Dow Jones fell eight straight days, for its worst week. London had its worst trading week since the 1987 crash.

"I have never seen anything like this and I hope I never go through anything like this again," said Valerie Plagnol, director of strategy for Credit-Mutuel-CIC in Paris, commenting on the clash of the stock fall and the credit freeze.

"It's been a long week in the history of the financial markets," said Joshua Raymond a strategist for City Index in London. "What is happening now is not just history repeating. If you map out every single event along the way, we are setting a whole new precedent."

A 700 billion dollar US bailout, an 800 billion dollar British package, coordinated interest rate cut by seven central banks -- nothing seems to work. Investors have been massively scared off.

"The markets have shown that it is naive to assume that the UK banking bail-out and rate cuts this week would turn the market instantaneously; confidence takes months to build and hours to shatter," added Raymond.

"It's blood bath," said Hiten Agarwal of Bombay brokers Angel Broking.

The damage extended to commodities markets -- just as it is quickly spreading through the whole economy. "Markets are very much trading on fear, which has overwhelmed fundamentals," said Nimit Khamar at Sucden traders in London, talking about the oil market where prices have now fallen below 80 dollars a barrel.

Swiss bank Wegelin the intervention of governments and central banks had the opposite effect. "Uncertainty and panic have been increased."

"People just don't have the confidence to put their money back into the market yet," said James Foulsham, head of trading at CMC Markets in Sydney. "We are going to need some stability first before we start seeing retail and even institutional clients come back in."

So what is ahead? There is talk of a summit of global leaders which could take new measures.

Justin Urquhart-Stewart, an analyst for Seven Investment Management said the action already taken by governments this week to ease the financial crisis and spur critical credit flows had to succeed.

"There is no Plan B," warned Urquhart-Stewart who has called the crisis a "perfect storm" with a banking system in crisis and a critically slowing global economy.

There is doubt however.

"After this week's internationally coordinated cut in rates we do not think that there will be any other major measures announced, but we cannot be completely sure!" added Philip Shaw of Investec.

Nearly all dealers insist that the end of the crisis will only come with the end of the freeze on credit lending. And right now, said Matt Buckland, a trader with CMC Markets, that is not in sight, despite the massive efforts of central banks.

 

 
STORY INDEX
 
  Analysts say markets stuck between fear and panic
   
 
  Selling frenzy persists
   
 
  Paulson says U.S. planning to buy financial equity
   
 
  Oh, what a week!
   
 
  KL the top choice of expatriates
   
 
  Bilateral trade between US & Singapore increases
   
 
  Recovery harder with European dis-Union
   
 
  Are S'poreans worried this could happen here?
   
 
  Landlord takes $15,000 in rent and vanishes
   
 
  Five dumb deals they wish they'd skipped
   
We welcome contributions, comments and tips.
a1admin@sph.com.sg
   

Search: