Optimism for recovery in second half is fading fast
The worldwide credit crisis that burst onto investors' radar screens nearly a year ago wiped out some US$3.3 trillion (S$4.49 trillion) in wealth from global stock market wealth in the first half of this year, and optimism for a second-half recovery is fading fast.
Benchmark stock indices around the world just wrapped up their worst first half in six years or even more.
For some, most notably the Dow Jones industrial average, which dropped 14.4 per cent in the six months through June 30, it was the poorest start to a year in nearly four decades.
Even the superpowers among stock markets in emerging countries, including China and India, have not escaped the sell-off.
Investors have been dumping anything with risk - stocks, emerging market assets and corporate credits - on persistent concerns that a global slowdown will be exacerbated by quickening inflation, fuelled by elevated oil and food prices, and rising interest rates.
A crumbling outlook for corporate profits has recently added to the gloom.
That has left much of the world's equity markets in or near a bear market for the first time since the dot-com bubble burst at the beginning of the decade.
Few are willing to say the worst is over.
"It is too early to call for a sustainable bottom," said Mr Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management.
Since the beginning of the year, the MSCI All-World Index has fallen 11.9 per cent.
While the global benchmark is down 17 per cent from its record close last October, it is not yet in bear market territory, typically marked by a decline of 20 per cent of more.
The Nasdaq composite index, down 13.6 per cent year-to-date and off its low of the year, has been in a bear market since February.
Europe's benchmark FTSEurofirst 300 ended the first half down 20.3 per cent and has been in bear territory since January.
Asia, often touted as the new workhorse of the global economy, has fared no better.
Japan's Nikkei 225, which has been in a bear market since January, dropped 11.9 per cent in the last six months in its worst start to a year since 1995.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down 20.5 per cent, its weakest beginning to a year since 1994.
The Shanghai Composite has plunged 48 per cent since the year began, the worst start to a year since at least 1992. - REUTERS