A SIGN that the economy's recovery is not a job-less one is that the third quarter's gain of 14,000 jobs cancelled out the first six months' losses. This is reassuring. Recession cycles in industrial countries in the past two decades had seen slower job growth after recovery came. This was usually a result of tighter deployment of resources, like use of technology and outsourcing some functions overseas. Employers did not want to take on excessive wage cost in an early phase of revenue recovery. Structural changes in the economy were another factor, as some processes became obsolete. Job-less growth or job growth that lags aggregate demand also shadows productivity drives. This happens to be a renewed preoccupation here.

But what would intrigue labour economists about the third-quarter outlook is the high casualty rate among graduates. Degree holders accounted for one-third of redundancies. In September, jobless graduates as a proportion of the total unemployed among citizens and permanent residents was about 20 per cent, roughly the same as in September last year. But the absolute number of 18,400 was higher in a growth period than a year ago (10,800) when job cuts were the rage. What's going on?

Conventional explanations like graduates being demanding about pay and conditions of work, taking a time-out to 'recharge' (whatever this means), or job hopping to land the ideal occupation do not do justice to the majority of young people who are serious about career development. There are, however, two trend possibilities which require study by unions, employers and search firms. Job fit is one. The universities and industries are known to consult on course relevance and industrial attachments. This has to be a continual process, not ad hoc, as product cycles, consumption patterns and industry needs change. For illustration, the biomedical industry and the consuming habits of a retiring generation that is sophisticated and has money to burn are not exactly discoveries where requisite manpower is concerned. Are the universities acutely sensitive to dynamic marketplace change in the kinds of graduates they put out? The fact that polytechnic graduates land jobs faster is an endorsement of their ready-to-market training.

The second factor is the entry of young foreigner graduates, on S or employment passes. They cost less, and then there are those from outside Asia who want to pack in 'Asia experience'. There is no justifiable reason to admit too liberally these young persons when there are jobless Singaporeans with matching qualifications. Charity has to begin at home, in cases where youngish foreigners with thin resumes bring no particular strengths to their jobs.

This article was first published in The Straits Times.