By CHUANG PECK MING

The job market is poised to shed its fragility and flex some muscle. More employers here plan to add to their headcount in the next three months in anticipation of business picking up next year, a poll by recruitment firm Hudson has found. This is backed up by the Singapore National Employers' Federation (SNEF) which has conducted its own survey.

In Hudson's May poll, 26 per cent of 700 executives in key business sectors projected higher recruitment in the July-September quarter, up from 20 per cent for Q2 ended June 30. Some 60 per cent would hold headcount steady.

This suggests that the depressed job market - while still far from bouncing back to the previous peak - is turning around.

'Hiring expectations in Singapore are significantly higher this quarter, improving for the first time since Q1 2007,' said Gina McLellan, Hudson's country manager in Singapore. 'Employers in all sectors are increasingly optimistic about business prospects.'

Figures from a current survey done by SNEF also point to a more optimistic quarter ahead.

'Our preliminary findings from 200 employers surveys showed that 5 per cent more are hiring in Q3, compared to Q2,' the SNEF's executive director, Koh Juan Kiat, told BT yesterday.

Some 65 per cent of those polled by US-based Hudson expect Asian economies to start recovering in 2010. And 12 per cent were more upbeat, tipping the upturn to start later this year.

'In the information technology and telecommunications sector, 42 per cent anticipate recovery in the first half of next year, more than in any other sector,' Hudson says in its report. 'This industry consistently demonstrates an ability to reinvent itself and adapt to challenging market conditions.'

But respondents in the healthcare and life sciences sector reported the highest hiring expectations, with 38 of them indicating they will grow headcount this quarter - about the same percentage in Q1 and Q2. Just 5 per cent in this sector plan to axe staff, fewer than in any other sector.

Most telling are hiring plans in banking and financial services - the sector that was first to cut back on recruitment and put the squeeze on lending that sparked the current economic slump. After a period of falling expectations, banking and finance reported the biggest jump in hiring intentions - 32 per cent this quarter, up from 19 per cent in Q2.

'Hiring plans that were delayed from Q4 2008 onwards are now being implemented as the volume of deals appears to be sustainable,' Hudson's report says. 'This indicates a much more positive outlook for the financial sector and the economy as a whole.'

Other human resource consultancies such as Robert Walters are reserving judgment on the story behind the rising numbers.

'The increase in hiring might not be due to revenue growth. More companies are undergoing restructuring or have more regulatory and compliance activities, and they are hiring because there is just more work to be done,' Robert Walters' Pan Zai Xian pointed out.

Also, the cyclical increases traditionally expected in Q3 cannot be overlooked.

'Even in good markets, Q2 and Q3 are the best quarters for hiring. In Q4, most firms with Dec 31 year-ends are closing their books and in Q1, bonuses are given out and employers wait to see how many people leave after getting their bonuses before they start hiring,' said Mr Pan.

According to the Hudson report, plans to hire during this quarter are up in all sectors, except the media, public relations and advertising industry. But the decline in that sector is tiny, dipping from 18 per cent in Q2 to 17 per cent. Still, the proportion of respondents expecting to cut staff in this sector rose sharply from 15 to 24 per cent.

'Many clients are still cautious, and some permanent roles for advertising professionals have been put on a contract basis,' Hudson says.

Perhaps springing from the intention to step up recruitment to meet a pick-up in business, 23 per cent of respondents see staff retention and motivation as the most important people-related issues in the next 12 months.

'Employers recognise that they may struggle to retain key staff when the economy starts to recover,' Hudson says. This is especially so in the banking and financial sector, where morale has been battered by the financial crisis.

Around 60 per cent of the Hudson survey respondents intend to hold headcount steady in the current quarter - the same percentage as in Q1 and Q2. The proportion with staff cuts on their minds fell from 19 to 14 per cent.

But it is still early days, and the increase in hiring in Q3 - if it happens - will be just the first step in a long climb back to previous employment levels. Compared with a year ago, the latest hiring expectations are still much lower.

'A look at the year-on-year movement in expectations puts the current figures in perspective,' Hudson's report says. 'Overall, the 26 per cent of respondents who expect to increase hiring this quarter compares with 43 per cent in Q3 2008.'

This article was first published in The Business Times.