By Alastair McIndoe

MANILA: At Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport, returning overseas workers such as Ms Lennie Torda are greeted with special lines at immigration and welcome home messages.

In the interests of the country's US$140 billion (S$204 billion) economy and her own family, it is important that the Ms Torda, 32, is able to return to her job as a domestic help in Hong Kong.

With a tenth of the Philippine population employed overseas as doctors, nurses, drivers, housemaids or chefs in over 200 countries, the economy is at risk from a drop in remittances, a major driver of growth, from a protracted global economic slump.

Last year, Filipinos abroad sent home a record US$14 billion in remittances. Should the global downturn be prolonged, the labour authorities here reckon that 50,000 Filipinos could be coming home from the US alone, adding to domestic unemployment running in double-digits. Government agencies are drawing up contingency plans, such as programmes for returned workers to set up small enterprises. Analysts say the jobs most at risk are unskilled workers like maids, waiters and factory workers.

Migrante International, an alliance of migrant labour groups from 60 countries, says that domestic helpers in Singapore and Hong Kong are visibly at risk.

'Employers in both countries are typically middle-class with sizable investments in stocks and other financial instruments - and they're having big problems right now,' said Mr Eman Villanueva, Migrante's secretary-general for Hong Kong.

Ms Christy Arciaga, 46, one of an estimated 60,000 Filipina maids in Singapore, said the thought of losing her job is giving her sleepless nights. Her boss, a businessman, has lost heavily on the stock market.

'He is often angry and tells me he might even send me home before my contract ends,' said Ms Arciaga. 'What about my family? Two of my children are still in college.'

Filipino maid Mary Macatia said that her recently-retrenched employer 'has not told me to leave yet'.

'I am afraid, waiting for the day it might happen,' said the 24-year-old.

At the height of the 1997 Asian financial crisis domestics laid off in Hong Kong could be counted in hundreds, rather than thousands, according to Migrante's estimates.

Still, a check with five maid employment agencies in Singapore found that the situation here was stable for now, and that the demand for maids remained strong. Any fallout would be months down the road, they said.

Recruiters in the Philippines also say they have so far not heard of Filipinos on employment contracts overseas losing their jobs because of the crisis, though worrying signs are emerging in some markets.

'We're seeing overtime cutbacks in factories in the electronics sector in South Korea and Taiwan,' said Mr Jackson Gan, vice-president of Federated Association of Manpower Exporters.

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This article was first published in The Straits Times on October 13, 2008.