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Mon, Mar 23, 2009
The Straits Times
5 people who will matter most in 2009

BARACK OBAMA

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» History in the making
» 5 areas that will figure the most in 2009 and why
» 5 issues to beware of in the coming year
» A-Z of the credit crunch

THE new President of the United States was a unanimous choice in our poll. Apart from attempting to repair the US economy, he is also unveiling ambitious plans to reform health care, energy and education, while remaking America's foreign policy.

His election prompted a groundswell of hope, and this goodwill has persisted with his approval ratings remaining high.

But can he do all that is expected of him? Mr Obama passed his US$787 billion (S$1.2 trillion) stimulus plan with zero support from the Republicans, while the controversial Troubled Asset Relief Programme for bank bailouts is drawing more critics every day. Investors fear Mr Obama will prove unable to fix the deepening US recession - a fear manifested in the consistent tanking of markets.

WEN JIABAO

WITH the US seemingly down for the count, the rest of the world is pinning its hopes on China firing up as a key engine of global growth this year.

As Beijing's key policymaker, Premier Wen is the man tasked with coming up with a fiscal stimulus plan effective enough to sustain the promised 8 per cent economic growth this year - a level considered essential to maintain employment growth - in the face of the country's largest export collapse.

So far, he is doing pretty well. China's 4 trillion yuan (S$895 billion) stimulus package appears to be having some early beneficial effect, with its property sector showing nascent signs of recovery.

Mr Wen has also proved able at calming the markets: Jittery investors were soothed last week by his promise of further fiscal measures if necessary.

BEN BERNANKE

MR BERNANKE discarded four decades of monetary received wisdom a year ago when he led the Federal Reserve bailout of investment bank Bear Stearns, kicking off a series of bailouts and emergency funding for US banks and companies.

Now, the Federal Reserve chairman is running out of policy options, with the federal funds rate already near the floor at 0 per cent to 0.25 per cent.

This has led to yet more unconventional measures being used to sustain fragile credit flows. Last weekend, he said the Fed was 'effectively' printing money to get liquidity flowing again, a strategy known as quantitative easing.

But his task does not stop at nursing the economy back to life. Once the credit markets recover, Mr Bernanke will have to move quickly to reverse the effects of all the liquidity-boosting programmes - by raising interest rates and reducing the money supply in order to avoid an inflation-plagued rebound.

TIMOTHY GEITHNER

THE US Treasury Secretary is facing what some call the ultimate challenge: Cobbling together a rescue package for banks that will purge their toxic assets without bankrupting the government or overburdening taxpayers.

But the plans he has outlined so far have disappointed investors with their lack of detail, while his speeches have failed to garner much confidence. In a Saturday Night Live TV spoof of Mr Geithner addressing the nation, comedian Will Arnett proposed setting aside US$420 billion for 'the first individual that comes up with a workable plan to solve the banking crisis'.

Compounding the problem is political opposition to Mr Geithner's plans, as well as his wafer-thin team - his department is about a month behind with its hiring.

As the US banking crisis enters its second year, all eyes are on Mr Geithner to get his act together.

JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET

AS CHIEF of the European Central Bank, Mr Trichet holds sway over the largest economic unit in the world. But while his fellow central bankers worldwide are sweating from exhausting all the options open to them, Mr Trichet is being criticised for not doing enough to manage Europe's financial crisis.

And he has more challenges ahead: The ongoing integration of the European Union's single market, the expansion of the monetary union, and the impending nervous breakdown of eastern Europe.

Other European leaders to watch include British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is leading this year's G-20 meeting with an agenda to tighten international financial regulation.

The Straits Times polled the following economists and academics in the compilation of these reports:

Ms Selena Ling (OCBC), Mr Irvin Seah (DBS), Mr David Cohen (Action Economics), Mr Alvin Liew (Standard Chartered), Mr Davin Chor (Singapore Management University), Mr Leong Wai Ho (Barclays Capital), Mr Joseph Tan (Credit Suisse), Mr Kit Wei Zheng (Citigroup), Mr Thierry Apotheker (Thierry Apotheker Consultant), Mr Song Seng Wun (CIMB-GK) and Mr Jimmy Koh (UOB).

This article was first published in The Straits Times.

 

 
STORY INDEX
 
  Post-Crisis World
   
 
  History in the making
   
 
  5 areas that will figure the most in 2009 and why
   
 
  5 people who will matter most in 2009
   
 
  5 issues to beware of in the coming year
   
 
  A-Z of the credit crunch
   
 
  Feeling the pinch
   
 
  The 'big spenders' are getting smart
   
 
  Debt-free women
   
 
  AIG bonus payments - US$218 million
   
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Post-Crisis World
History in the making
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