By Koh Hui Theng

SINGAPORE'S economy is likely to recover next year, according to a median forecast by a group of 20 economists and analysts.

They expect growth of 3.3 per cent next year.

The results were released yesterday by theMonetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which conducted the quarterly survey of professional forecasters on Feb 26.

Experts my paper spoke to were equally upbeat about the outlook for next year.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun felt that things would look up as "the rate of contraction narrows in the last few months of this year".

While manufacturing, which contributes one quarter of Singapore's gross domestic product, fell last year after years of growth, Mr Song expected it to register the biggest rebound next year.

The services sector, which is a key driver of the economy, would also improve because of "stronger retail showing and higher tourist arrivals", he added.

UOB economist Chow Penn Nee said all the signs point to a recovery next year.

She said: "Construction will lead the charge, with an expected 10 to 12 per cent expansion, thanks to increased infrastructure spending."

Indeed, the survey showed that construction is the only sector that the forecasters expect to grow this year - up 8.2 per cent.

And like any trade-dependent country, Singapore's economic recovery is subject to many external factors, especially the ups and downs of the United States economy.

Said OCBC treasury economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja: "The US equity market has been on the rebound recently. Assuming the global economy bottoms out by the end of this year, we can look forward to positive 2 to 3 per cent growth next year."

Meanwhile, the outlook for this year is still gloomy. The forecasters polled by MAS expect the economy to contract by 4.9 per cent this year.

They had made a median forecast of a 1 per cent contraction in a previous survey last December.

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