SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA: Australians are turning to some unexpected and unofficial indicators to find out if the country would avoid a recession.

Unconvinced by official data - which are sending mixed and sometimes-dubious signals - pundits are turning to everything from muffin sales to home-brewing kits.

Even economists and the central bank have been forced to play private detective and rummage through the rubbish bin of economics for vital clues.

Said chief economist Craig James at brokerage CommSec: "You need to paint a picture of the economy and you do that by looking at all available indicators."

Economists spend most of their time analysing official data, ranging from retail sales to job statistics, but they also rely on the street to tell them if the figures are lying.

The alternative indicators include gloomier reports that corporate Christmas parties are being cancelled and, in a very dark sign, that more Australians are brewing their own beer at home.

But the real harbinger of recession is far from conclusive: Muffin sales appear to be holding up. Advocates of "the muffin effect" - as it was dubbed by the Australian Financial Review recently - believe that when the economy slams into reverse, office commuters deny themselves their usual muffin with their morning cup of coffee.

Said Mr Matthew Burke, owner of Prima Vera coffee shop in downtown Sydney: "We are selling muffins with the (cups of) coffee. I don't think we have noticed the flow-on into the real economy yet... But it will definitely start to affect us if people lose their jobs."

Anecdotes and alternative indicators like "the muffin effect" are gaining ground, as doubts grow over some of the official data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The bureau's recent retail- sales data have been erratic, and a surprise jump in employment last month seemed to fly in the face of another indicator showing heavy falls in job advertisements.

Said RBC Capital Markets senior economist Ong Su-Lin: "At the end of the day, anecdotes... are probably a bit more timely than the hard official data." --REUTERS