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A force for good?
Mon, Jun 30, 2008
The Straits Times

SWFs - 'Saviour wealth funds'?

This may be a better name for sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), argues the European Union's trade commissioner Peter Mandelson.

His comments were made this month during trips to Abu Dhabi and other Gulf countries for free- trade-agreement discussions.

The positive sentiment about SWFs marks the growing chorus of support for them as benign benefactors, who should be welcomed by governments rather than feared.

Indeed, even those who voiced suspicions against SWFs last year have largely changed their tune now.

The finance ministers from the Group of Eight (G-8) rich nations, who feared that SWFs' rise signalled the onset of 'investment protectionism' some 10 months ago, have acknowledged the positive side of SWFs.

Earlier this month, the G-8 conceded: 'We recognise the benefits of commercially driven investment from government-controlled investors such as SWFs.'

Investment guru Warren Buffett weighed in even more strongly in favour of SWFs.

In his March annual letter to shareholders, he roundly trashed the conspiracy theories indicting SWFs' recent investments in big banks as part of 'some nefarious plot by foreign governments'.

If anyone were to blame, it would be the United States itself, he insisted.

'This is our doing. Our trade equation guarantees massive foreign investments in the US.

'When we force-feed US$2 billion (S$2.73 billion) daily to the rest of the world, they must invest in something here. Why should we complain when they choose stocks over bonds?' he argued.

Indeed, Mr Buffett pointed out that the key agenda of SWFs is more sensible than sinister - how to eke out satisfactory returns.

SWFs have no time to entertain pipe dreams of taking over the world - 'They already have their hands full trying to do a good job, to answer to their citizen shareholders at home,' an executive from an Asian SWF said, on condition of anonymity.

Hence, SWFs, including Singapore's funds, are diversifying outside their own home markets in search of a 'better risk-return benefit', explained Harvard Business School professor Robert Merton in an interview last year.

They need 'to preserve assets for future generations'.

Because SWFs are seeking long-term returns, another compelling argument is they are not out to make a quick buck like other investors.

China's Finance Minister Xie Xuren pointed out that SWFs can act as a balance to the short-term bets made by other investors.

'SWFs' investments are generally long-term, not speculative, so they are beneficial to the growth of investment and the economy,' Mr Xie said on June 17 on the sidelines of the US-China strategic economic dialogue talks.

Still, why go as far as to revere SWFs like China Investment Corporation (CIC) and Temasek Holdings as financial saviours?

Because they were willing to provide a lifeline at very short notice, by injecting much-needed capital into embattled banks, while other investors were fleeing in horror.

SWFs can afford to do so because they can wait for years until these companies recover. Government of Singapore Investment Corporation chairman Lee Kuan Yew declared in a Bloomberg TV interview on April 29 that the fund can hold some investments for two or three decades.

SWFs can 'stand the market volatility well into the long run', since their funds are stable and managed by investment professionals, noted Assistant Professor Yothin Jinjarak at Nanyang Technological University. This makes SWFs uniquely positioned to be stabilising forces amid the current financial turbulence, said the economics lecturer.

And now that SWFs have bought into Western assets, there is even less reason to fear them becoming renegades. After all, they have the same vested interests in ensuring that the global financial system remains stable.

Many SWFs hail from Asia and the Middle East, whose breakneck growth has been partly due to massive exports to the US and Europe.

Imagine a nightmare scenario where the SWFs did not inject capital into Wall Street.

Market confidence hits rock bottom. Liquidity in the financial system dries up. The US recession may well be worse than it is now.

'It is difficult to think of how much worse off we (the US) would be in the current financial crisis without SWFs,' wrote Mr Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of US private equity firm Blackstone, in a Financial Times commentary on June 19.

A recession in the US and Europe would hurt developing countries' growth, so SWFs from Asia and the Middle East have an added incentive to ensure the global economy remains stable - to protect their own economies.

SWF investments can also be good for the Western companies involved, said Shanghai-based economics analyst Jin Zhao.

Take Barclays, for example. Temasek Holdings and China Development Bank (CDB) - in which CIC holds a stake - helped to sweeten the British bank's bid for rival bank ABN Amro last year, by investing in Barclays.

Even after the bid fell through, Barclays was still the winner, having sealed a lucrative five-year deal to become the Chinese government's preferred provider of commodity-market risk hedging.

Indeed, companies looking for access to overseas markets like China may get a golden ticket from the SWFs which invest in them,' said Ms Jin.

While other companies, until recently, took the long road of forming joint ventures or buying stakes in Chinese companies, those with SWF investors may get a short cut.

Blackstone is enjoying access to plum investment advisory roles in China thanks to CIC, which bought a stake of just under 10 per cent in the US investment group.

It has been roped in to advise Chinalco on the latter's role in a merger between Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton to become the world's largest mining company. Chinalco bought a 9 per cent stake in Rio Tinto in January.

And it is not just financial players who sing praises of SWF involvement.

High-fashion US retailer Barneys New York is said to have become an even more premium brand after US$940 million of petrodollars sloshed through its portals from Istithmar, a Dubai SWF, a year ago.

SWFs have won over many critics, after bringing stability and liquidity to the global capital markets.

All these have prompted Mr William Miracky, a Monitor Group senior partner and former Federal Reserve economist, to declare: 'On balance, SWFs are good.'

This article was first published in The Straits Times on June 28, 2008.

 

 
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