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Coming to terms with risks
Mon, Sep 29, 2008
The Straits Times

By Lorna Tan

Retail investors who had put money in investments known as structured products are now crying foul. Many claimed they had been given the wrong impression by the banks that such products were safe and low-risk.

Such products that made recent headlines include United States investment bank Lehman Brothers' Minibond Series and DBS Bank's High Notes, which also have exposure to Lehman.

Investor Eileen Ko, 52, is now looking at the dire prospect of losing her hard-earned life savings of $100,000.

In January last year, Madam Ko, a human resource manager, was persuaded to park her savings in a structured product, the Minibond Series 3 notes, distributed by a foreign bank here.

She became convinced that it was a safe enough haven because she had wrongly believed it was capital protected. Besides, the annual payouts of 5 per cent looked attractive and the value of the product was linked to six major banks, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and United Overseas Bank.

Lehman packaged and issued the instrument. So, when it filed for bankruptcy a fortnight ago, the Minibond Series got into trouble too.

Said Madam Ko: 'It's a heartache to see my hard-earned life savings for retirement go down the drain. To save another $100,000 at my age is not easy.'

She and hundreds of similar investors found out, albeit too late, that what they thought was a secure product was, in fact, very risky. Minibond investors are now resigning themselves to a steep loss.

For many, in hindsight, structured products have to be seen as 'buyer beware' instruments. Recent structured products include JP Morgan's 'AsiaConfidence' note and Morgan Stanley's Pinnacle Series 12.

They typically provide investors with a return that is linked to the performance of some financial instruments such as equities, foreign exchange and derivatives. In recent years, their complexity has grown. Sadly, many customers' knowledge did not grow to match the complexity.

It has not helped that product fact sheets generally contain details that only serve to confuse the investor.

We put together here a guide to the bewildering array of features and terms found on these fact sheets.

Effective rate of return

Most structured products pay a guaranteed minimum rate. Some pay this out as a lump sum - after a period of time - into the deposit, for example, after the first year. Because of the short span of time, the returns will appear inflated. The smart thing to do is divide this by the total number of years to get the effective rate of return.

For instance, if the bank pays 8 per cent after the first year and the tenure of the product is four years, the effective interest rate is 2 per cent per annum.

In fact, many investors may be unaware that the first payout of, say, 8 per cent, is taken from their investment. The bank had simply returned some of their money. They will see a profit, if any, only at maturity.

Any investor who liquidates the product the day after receiving this first payout will find that his investment has dropped by 8 per cent.

Types of 'observations'

The higher returns of structured deposits are linked to the performance of an underlying investment. This 'performance' is measured at intervals known as observations which, in turn, dictate how the returns are paid out.

For example, if a structured deposit has only one observation throughout the life of the deposit, the odds of getting the higher return hinge solely on that one event. This, of course, reduces significantly the odds of the investor earning a higher return.

Structures that have more observations - for example, daily observations - thus give the investor greater odds of earning a higher return. The easiest way to picture this is to think of the number of spins one can have at a game of wheel of fortune. Single-observation structures are like single spins while daily accrual structures give the investor multiple spins of the wheel.

Frequency of payouts

The more frequent the payouts, the earlier the customer will get to enjoy returns.

Hence, if an investor is comparing two long-tenure structures with similar maturities, the structure with quarterly payouts will be better than the one that pays the return only at the end.

Choice of underlying investment

The golden rule here is: greater returns can be achieved only by taking on more risks. Its corollary is: the more complicated the underlying structure, the higher the risk taken. So, know the type of risk you are taking by understanding what is the underlying investment.

For instance, if the underlying instrument is currencies, your exposure is to forex risks; if it is gold, oil, or metal, you are exposed to commodity prices.

Callability

Callability means that the issuer may terminate the structure before the maturity date. Callability is often used as a sweetener by the financial institutions in long-term structures as it gives investors the chance to get their money earlier than the maturity date.

The other way to grasp this is that the bank gives itself the option to buy you out via an 'early redemption'. If your investment is doing well, your profits will be limited if such a 'cap' kicks in.

Banks make this sound like it is an advantage to you when you get your money sooner. In fact, you're better off with the option of holding on to your investment if it is generating high returns. Think golden goose.

Reference entities

Investors should become familiar with the primary reference entities, usually well-known financial institutions, that are linked to the structured products they have bought, said Mr Sani Hamid, associate director of wealth management at financial advisory firm Financial Alliance.

Usually, they are highly rated entities but we know now that even their fate can change drastically over a short period. Investors should be aware of the credit ratings of these entities as they would give an indication of their financial strength.

Credit event

A credit event is a financial term that is broadly used to describe a change in a borrower's credit standing or an actual default in payment that will affect the payoff or value on a structured product.

A credit event could include bankruptcies (as in the Lehman case), defaults on a loan agreement (as in the sub-prime fiasco) or if a creditor raises doubts about a debtor's ability to meet loan obligations.

By far, bankruptcies are the most common credit events.

A ratings downgrade by credit- rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's or Moody's on a particular bank or financial institution can also trigger a credit event.

Bottom line: You need to understand what a credit event is since it is an additional risk factor to consider when buying a structured product.

If you feel that an underlying stock is in danger of triggering a credit event, you can then take appropriate action early.

Capital protected

When you buy a fixed income instrument, be it a deposit or a bond, your capital is typically protected until maturity. Usually, the principal sum is invested in safe investments like bonds which, on maturity, are expected to provide the 100 per cent capital protection.

You will of course need to hold the instrument until maturity, to ensure that your capital is returned to you, provided nothing happens to the issuer of the instrument, said IPP Financial Advisers' investment director Albert Lam.

Bear in mind the possibility that the issuer and/or the underlying safe investments may default. If that happens, how your capital is paid back to you depends on where you stand in line as a creditor.

On the other hand, if you terminate your holding before maturity, early termination fees may apply. You will then get back less than your capital sum.

Capital guaranteed

In this case, the guarantee is usually provided by a third-party financial institution. If there is a 100 per cent capital guarantee on a fund, the third-party guarantor or the insurer will provide the 100 per cent capital guarantee at maturity regardless of the performance of the underlying investments in the fund.

In the event that the issuer of the instrument goes bust, your capital is guaranteed. So, where's the risk? If the guarantor - the third-party financial institution - defaults, that's where the buck stops.

The issuer typically pays a fee to the guarantor. This fee is then taken off the returns of the instrument. This explains why capital- guaranteed structures tend to either cost more or give lower returns.

Back in 1999, the first 'more cautious' generation of structured products were capital-guaranteed, so they were low-risk but the returns were low too.

So if you have invested in a capital-guaranteed product, you have an additional layer of protection, compared to a capital-protected product. This is because in the event the instrument goes bust, your capital is guaranteed by a third party.

In the case of a capital-protected product, the capital is not guaranteed but the issuer tries to place sufficient protection in the structure so as to limit the loss of capital.

Of course, for both capital-protected and capital-guaranteed products, there is nothing to stop either the issuer or the guarantor from going under.

 


For more The Straits Times stories, click here.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on September 28, 2008.

 

 
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