DEVELOPERS are so gun-shy of the quiet property market that they are continuing to hold off launching units, creating fears of a supply glut and possible price slump.

The pool of unsold, uncompleted private flats that can be launched for immediate sale rose by more than 3,000 units in the first quarter of this year.

This brings the number of such units to 10,239, a three-year high, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority figures released yesterday.

Of the 10,239 unlaunched flats, 4,824 units were in the core central region, which includes districts 9, 10 and 11. These are areas with high-end properties - the very sort facing lacklustre demand now.

Things are even worse in the rest of the central region, where the number of unlaunched units rose by 77 per cent to 2,934 in the first three months.

High-end projects that have not been launched include Marina Bay Suites, Sentosa Quayside and Nassim Park Residences.

CBRE Research expects more suburban launches this quarter as developers focus on mass market projects.

Developers on the whole remain wary of new launches, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research for South-east Asia.

But there was significant growth in suburban areas, where 813 units - or 60.5 per cent of total launches - were released in the first quarter. Yet demand was weak.

'This could result in a supply overhang that may encourage a more conservative approach by developers in the next quarter,' said Dr Chua.

The industry uses launches to sell units to generate cash flow. Big developers have the resources to hold on for years if the market is flat, but smaller firms may be under pressure to sell at lower prices.

Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy, said that if sales volume remains thin, more small developers will likely cut prices of their projects to improve cash flow, but the impact of their action may be lost on the market because of their size.

But big-name developers able to launch units may not do so until the United States sub-prime crisis eases, said Mr Ku Swee Yong from Savills Singapore.

Major developers such as Wheelock Properties, Far East Organization, City Developments and Keppel Land have, in the past, been willing to hold back their launches for several years, he added.

Take Far East. It topped up the lease of its 99-year leasehold property, Orchard Scotts, while it delayed the launch several years ago.

While the quarter was flat, there was naturally some sales activity. Developers sold 762 new homes in the first quarter, but that was one of the smallest numbers in 12 years.

By the end of the first quarter, there were 2,526 flats that had been launched but remained unsold. These could include units launched several months ago.

In the pipeline are another 29,920 units that have yet to obtain a sales licence

The vacancy rate of private homes has also been rising steadily since the second quarter of last year, when it was at a low of 4.9 per cent. It hit 6.3 per cent in the first quarter.

Developers sell about 8,000 homes a year. If their inventory of unsold private homes exceeds 17,000, it could indicate a supply glut, said Mr Mak.

We are not anywhere near that point, he added. But it is now a stand-off. Buyers are waiting for prices to fall while sellers are waiting for buyers to return.

But Mr Ku said that unless developers flood the market, which they are not expected to, the significant increase in stock is not a real concern.

This article was first published in The Business Times on April 26, 2008.