IT COULD be worse. Singaporeans impatient to consign a bad year at the stroke of midnight can be thankful 2008 had struck the majority of them only a glancing blow. For now, we should qualify.
On the personalised level, fewer workers have lost their livelihoods at this stage of a downturn this precipitate. Companies mindful of the tripartism compact would not want to take lightly the NTUC's call to them to preserve jobs as best they can. In asset protection, HDB property values are holding well. Socially, this is a most vital marker as personal wealth held in state housing is the only cushion for eight in 10 Singaporeans. News about prime-district apartments dropping a tenth to two-tenths of their value in nine months is wounding to the richer classes, but these people do not get crushed in a recession. In family budgeting, the waning of inflation, when it seemed it would overwhelm the working classes in the early part of the year, has brought welcome relief. All things considered, Singaporean families are far from defeated. They manage.
The unknown unknown is that this recession, being a Wall Street-induced phenomenon, is only starting to infect wider Asia. As bad as 2008 was for Americans and a good many Europeans, the speculation is that Asians will start to feel the worst of the flow-on effects in 2009 when the United States and Europe are expected to fare even worse than the year past. Singapore's listed businesses have suffered badly in diminution of value and earnings potential. The fate of unlisted SMEs facing credit tightening is causing concern. They employ six in 10 workers, according to estimates. If they keel over, 2009 could be a year of calamity.
The Straits Times, in common with individual Singaporeans, can only wish for propitious conjunctions in 2009 (Year of the Ox, business people are reminded). Our modest wish list:
Banks would lend more freely to businesses. SMEs are complaining that long relationships with their banks count for nothing now. Singapore is not like Wall Street (thankfully). Banks will find it worthwhile honouring bedrock Asian values, like long ties.
Layoffs should continue to be resisted. Employers want to think foremost of real people and real lives, not sales forecasts and P and L numbers. Kiss a consumption rebound goodbye if there are wholesale job cuts.
Relief for poorer families and businesses in the January Budget will be more generous than widely expected. But, please, no CPF cut.
Finally, that China will grow better than the sub-7 per cent forecast and that its social calm be not disturbed unduly. Asia depends on this.
This article was first published in The Straits Times on December 31, 2008.
