|
In the US, such funds were severely criticised during the crisis as their heavy allocations into equities caused steep losses. The Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed new rules around disclosure, for instance, for the funds.
In the short term Mr McCaughan is positive on US equities, despite the spate of bad news globally including the European debt crisis and the massive oil spill.
"The cyclical recovery is moving quite effectively . . . First quarter earnings and revenues were very strong for US companies indicating that conditions were not bad globally. The US economy has been growing since the third quarter last year, so it's quite well established."
Asian equities, on the other hand, are attractive as a long term hold for their strong growth stories, but valuations in the near term are less attractive, he says.
He is optimistic about China's recent decision to allow more flexibility in the yuan.
"Monetary policy in China has been one of the more worrying features. When you peg a currency to the US, you're stuck with US monetary policy which is quite inflationary for China . . .
I do expect investors in the short term to be more into the risk trade, and push up commodities and commodity-based currencies. But in the longer term, it's a good move to reinforce growth and make it more sustainable. I've been very positive on Asia. In the near term, I'd rather be in the US, but for the next five years, I'd rather be in Asia and the emerging markets."
Pictet, meanwhile, advocates a tactical approach, even as head of asset allocation Christophe Donay concedes that it has become more difficult to read macro signals.
"Over the next three months, there is reasonable visibility on GDP, but we have to interpret how the market will react. Today the market has opposite forces - deflationary from too much public debt, and growth forces from global growth . . . "
"The difficulty of a tactical approach lies in how you anticipate government decisions. Pollution from government decisions interacts with traditional fundamental variables."
One example is how recent market movements have ignored earnings growth. "This is the first time I'm seeing a strong discrepancy between equity markets and earnings growth," he adds.
|