ECONOMISTS put the odds at 50-50 that the US will drop into a recession this year. The chances of us getting dragged along are somewhat less.
No matter what happens, it won't get as bad as the three economic extremes described here. You can count your blessings.
1) Unemployment: Charlene Dumas is 16. She has no job and lives with her unemployed mother, father and 1-month old son in a slum in Port Au Prince, Haiti.
Food is hard to come by. So, like many of her neighbours, the family eats a special cookie.
It is filling enough to make an entire meal and costs only 5 cents. That's a bargain since two cups of rice cost 60 cents in Haiti.
Why so cheap? Because, incredibly, the main ingredient is dirt. Yellow soil is trucked in from the centre of Haiti. It is mixed with shortening and salt, then left to dry in the sun until the cookies are hard.
Charlene says, 'When my mother does not cook anything, I have to eat them three times a day.'
2) Inflation: Zimbabwe, Africa is a country of 13 million people, just north of South Africa. It is the undisputed world champion of inflation.
The official rate is 66,000 per cent per year, but everyone knows it is much higher. Independent estimates place it at 150,000 per cent per year.
The price of the state newspaper, The Herald, is 3 million Zimbabwe dollars. That is equivalent to 85 cents at the black market exchange rate.
One expatriate complained that the price he paid for his home 10 years ago buys only a single banana today.
It isn't just inflation. Work is scarce too. Zimbabwe's unemployment rate is holding steady at 80 per cent.
There is a small chance for change next month when the country holds its Presidential election. The leading candidate is President for life, Robert Mugabe, 84, who has held the job for the past 26 years.
3) Loans: India is booming. The population suddenly has access to credit cards and personal loans.
In the past, people would borrow from friends, relatives or the neighbourhood money lender.
Now, they borrow from big banks. The problem is no one keeps credit histories of borrowers. A person can borrow, default and then borrow again without the bank ever finding out.
It has given rise to India's latest small business: Debt collection agencies. Big banks contract them to enforce payment.
Tapan Bose defaulted on his car loan and his bank, ICICI, sent a collection agency to repossess the car.
Vinod Chaudhary had the bad luck of riding along with Tapan when the collectors arrived carrying iron bars.
He said, 'They grabbed my collar and started beating me. Someone hit me from behind and I almost passed out.'
One collection agency boasts on its web site that 70 per cent of the cases it has dealt with are resolved out of court. It doesn't explain how they get resolved.
How likely is a great depression?
COULD the US enter another depression like the 1930's? If so, would it drag us along?
It is unlikely. First, the world's economists say they can limit economic damage to mild recessions. No more great depressions.
Second, our economy has grown less dependent on exports to the US. They go their way and we go ours.
Our export market is shifting from the US to China.
According to statistics from IE Singapore, 25 per cent of our export market was to the US in 1996. But that figure dropped to 11 per cent in 2006.
For China it was the opposite. Our exports going there rose from 12 to 18 per cent over the same period.
Still, the problems are serious and could grow. It all started when risky US home loans started defaulting in July last year.
Now, eight months later, credit has dried up worldwide. Banks are reluctant to make loans with even a whiff of risk.
Of course, money that doesn't get borrowed also doesn't get spent. It slows the economic engine.
Like an airplane, the economy does not operate more safely at lower speeds. It is just the opposite. Slow down too much and there is a risk it will stall and crash.
Will that happen?
No one knows. There has never been a credit crisis like this before. We are flying blind.
